International Waters learning Exchange & Resource Network

References

Documents' categories:

  • Web portals (WP)
  • Policy guidance (PG)
  • Practical guidance and tools (GT)
  • Adaptation methodologies (AM)
  • Public/stakeholder involvement (SI)
  • Ecosystem specific material:
    • open oceans (OO)
    • Large Marine Ecosystems (LME)
    • coastal areas (CA)
    • marine resources (MR)
    • sea level rise (SLR)
Title Source Typology Location Summary

1

Multidecadal Atlantic Climate Variability and its Impact on Marine Pelagic Communities

Journal of Marine Systems, In Press

OO

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  • AIMED AT: marine policy makers
  • PURPOSE: Effect of both natural climatic oscillations and recent Northern hemisphere-warming trend on sea surface temperature (SST) was investigated. The results were used to determine what drives the dominant behavior of various indicator species of plankton as well as plankton communities.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: North East Atlantic
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Understanding of the spatio-temporal influence of natural oscillations and climate change on sea surface temperature (STT) and the interaction with the ecology of the North East Atlantic, as described by various species of plankton
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Spatio-temporal structure of the SST across the ocean basin scale explored. An understanding of the spatio-temporal structure of plankton abundance and its temporal drivers is of interest to marine policy makers because of the impact the plankton has on the rest of the marine ecosystem and to various industries such as fisheries. Even though there is a general trend towards rising temperatures, there are regions of the North Atlantic that have been cooling over the past few decades, as well as other regions that have been warming at a quicker rate. The reasons for this spatial heterogeneity comprise various physical features, such as bathymetry, currents and the positioning of high and low pressure centers. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences temperature changes across the North Atlantic but this influence is stronger where the effects of overturning ocean currents are particularly influential. The AMO may also have an impact on the occurrence of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Since it is thought to be connected to the circulation of the North Atlantic, the AMO might influence plankton abundance through changes in circulation rather than changes in temperature.

2

Introductory comments - Global change in marine ecosystems: Patterns, processes and interactions with regional and local scale impacts

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400, 2011

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Marine scientists
  • PURPOSE: Introduction to special issue. Combination of reviews, synoptic papers and new data papers on climate change issues in marine ecosystems.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Fishing, pollution, sea level rise (SLR)
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The volume is ordered into themes, the front end comprising review papers with a regional focus. The next section comprises long-term and broad-scale studies, beginning with two European synoptic review papers. The next section focuses on the individual level responses to global environmental change. The last section focuses on anticipating and adapting to global change.

3

Impacts of climate change on European marine ecosystems: Observations, expectations and indicators

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 400, 2011

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Those who formulate adaptive strategies to address consequences of climate change
  • PURPOSE: Paper summarizes the current state of knowledge with regard to general and region- specific impacts of climate change on 10 European marine systems.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Europe marine ecosystems
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Marine changes due to climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: In general for the European Seas considered here the pattern of sea temperature over the last century has fluctuated from generally cold conditions in the early 1900s to a warm period from the 1920s to the 1950s, cool again through the 1960s and 1970s, followed by recent warming that commenced in the mid 1980s. Many marine species are moving northwards. The rate and direction differs for diverse seas and species. Enclosed seas, such as the Baltic, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, have only small and primarily east–west orientated corridors which may restrict northward migration in these areas. For most open seas, there is evidence of species moving northwards and/or northern species being replaced by more southern ones. Such changes not only affect the local ecosystems, but also the international fishing industry when commercial species such as cod are involved. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be northward movement, from polar to more temperate species in the more northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas and from temperate to more subtropical species in the southern seas such as the Iberian upwelling margin. It is expected that within open systems there will generally be northward movement, from polar to more temperate species in the more northern seas such as the Arctic, Barents Sea and the Nordic Seas and from temperate to more subtropical species in the southern seas such as the Iberian

4

Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Global Environmental Change, 22, 2012

MR

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  • AIMED AT: Fisheries and aquaculture managers
  • PURPOSE: To assess whether global per capita consumption rates can be maintained or even increased in 2050, taking into account projections of human population growth and expected climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: World
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Fisheries and aquaculture
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Paper concludes that marine ecosystems may be able to sustain current and increased per capita consumption rates through 2050, provided that effective fisheries management measures are implemented and that significant technological adaptations are developed. If fisheries management remain sub-optimal and fishmeal prices rose as a consequence of greater demand, these conclusions would not hold. It is pedicted that there will be 6% overall increase on marine fisheries potential for “large” fish across the studied areas and a 3.6% increase on ‘‘small’’ fish in the top-twelve fishmeal producing nations. Conclusion is that in the case of capture fisheries, climate change impacts on production may not be the most significant factor in securing fish availability in the near future (to 2050). Ensuring that fisheries are efficiently governed and that aquaculture continues to grow in a sustainable manner will be the main constraints to the sustainability of global fish production. Policies encouraging improved environmental standards in aquaculture production and greater commitment to address governance weaknesses in capture fisheries will both be required.

5

Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries

Global Environmental Change, 22, 2012

CA

MR

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  • AIMED AT: Managers, donors and other policy- makers
  • PURPOSE: Paper examines three dimensions of vulnerability to the impacts of coral bleaching on fishery returns
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Indian Ocean countries
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Local-scale actions over medium-term time frames (i.e. <5 years) can include strengthening community groups responsible for managing coastal resources, improvements in coastal infrastructure, and migration to non-coastal areas. In much of the western Indian Ocean, community-based organizations are increasingly empowered with the responsibility of managing coastal resources such as reef-based fisheries. In the short term, national scale efforts to provide social safety nets may help to increase adaptive capacity by preventing the marginally poor from falling into poverty traps and reduce exposure to climate change. International-scale policy actions are much more general, with little specificity to coral reefs. Effectively adapting to changes in coral reef fisheries will also require governance of broader marine seascapes. Decades of research on common property institutions have suggested that there is a clear need for governance rules to be congruent with local social and environmental conditions.

6

Climate projections for selected large marine ecosystems

Journal of Marine Systems, 79, 2010

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, government
  • PURPOSE: to analyze climate change and variability model results of physical properties relevant to LMEs
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: regions of northwest Hawaii Islands, the Bering Sea, three eastern boundary currents regions, the Barents and the North Sea in the Atlantic
  • TECHNICAL AREA: climate change effects on marine ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Findings support the CMIP3 models as a useful source for climate projections on regional scales for marine ecosystem interests. Care must be exercised in their application with respect to selecting a reliable subset of models when extracting relevant variables in that not all models are equally reliable. Therefore, it is probably good practice to exclude models that clearly do not characterize a system properly to the extent this can be determined given limited data sets for validation. It is also a good idea to retain as many models as possible to form an ensemble forecast in order to reduce the errors intrinsic to individual models and provide important information on the uncertainty in these projections on the whole.

7

Rapid warming of Large Marine Ecosystems

Progress in Oceanography, 81, 2009

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Project development experts
  • PURPOSE: To study sea surface temperature (SST) change in the World Ocean in 1957-2006 period
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: LMEs
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Warming of large marine ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The U.K. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre SST climatology was used to compute 50-year time series (1957–2006) of sea surface temperature (SST) and examine SST trends in the World Oceans’ 63 LMEs. Reflecting a global trend, warming in most LMEs accelerated in late 1970s–early 1980s. Of the 63 LMEs, 61 warmed and only two cooled in 1982–2006. Linear SST trends for each LME show a distinct global pattern of rapid warming in three regions: around the Subarctic Gyre; in the European Seas; and in the East Asian Seas. Decadal rates of SST warming in these three regions are 2–4 times the global mean rate. These estimates are rather conservative as numerous independent studies based on various data sets reveal even higher rates in the 1990s–2000s, up to 10–12 times the global mean rate. The Subarctic Gyre warming is likely caused by natural variability related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The proximity of the European and East Asian Seas to major industrial/population agglomerations suggests a possible direct anthropogenic effect. Freshwater runoff in the European and East Asian Seas likely plays a special role in modulating and exacerbating global warming effects on the regional scale.

8

The moving boundaries of sea level change: Understanding the Origins of Geographic Variability

Oceanography, 24 (2) 2011

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Project development experts
  • PURPOSE: Paper explores two effects of regional sea level change: ice sheets gain or loss, and water movements between the continents and oceans
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: World oceans
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Regional sea level change; origins of climate variability
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: While globally averaged sea level rise provides an important integrated measure of changes in the Earth system, regional sea level changes have a more direct impact on society and provide greater information for scientists interested in the response of the planet to climate change. The impact on regional sea level observations most commonly associated with Glacial Isostatic Adjusment (GIA) is the uplift, or post-glacial rebound, of the crust near the centers of the former ice sheets. In any effort to analyze present-day observations of sea level change, it is important to understand and estimate the contaminating influence of the ongoing responses of Earth’s land and ocean to the last ice age, or GIA. Most of the current focus in regard to the mass component of sea level changes concentrates on present-day contributors of water from the continents, specifically, mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers, changes in the hydrological cycle, impoundment of water behind dams, and others. Often, the impacts of these sources are reported in terms of global average sea level change calculated as the volume of water divided by the ocean’s area.

9

Land Ice and Sea Level Rise: A Thirty-Year Perspective

Oceanography, 24 (2) 2011

SLR

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To present perspective on the sea level rise caused by melting of glaciers
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Coastal areas worldwide
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Impacts of the sea level rise
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The present-day assessment of contributions to sea level rise from glaciers and ice sheets depends to a large degree on new technologies that allow efficient and precise detection of change in otherwise inaccessible polar regions. The creation of an overall research strategy, however, was set in early collaborative efforts nearly 30 years ago to assess and project the contributions of glaciers and ice sheets to sea level rise. Many of the research objectives recommended by those early collaborations were followed by highly successful research programs and led to significant accomplishments. Over the last decade, when mass loss rates from Greenland and Antarctica started to accelerate, some means of projecting glacier and ice sheet changes became increasingly necessary, and alternatives to deterministic numerical models were sought. The result was a variety of extrapolation schemes that offer partial constraints on future glacier and ice sheet losses, but also contain significant uncertainties and rely on assumptions that are not always clearly expressed. This review examines the history of assessments of glacier and ice sheet contributions to sea level rise, and consider how questions asked 30 years ago shaped the nature of the research agenda being carried out today.

10

Planning for the impacts of sea level rise

Oceanography, 24 (2) 2011

CA

SLR

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: Focus is on adaptation to sea level rise, although some brief remarks on mitigation are included, as both strategies need to be combined to develop the most effective response to sea level rise.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Coastal areas worldwide
  • TECHNICAL AREA: The concentration of population and assets, including many major cities, along the coasts; impacts of the sea level rise on these places
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Over the twentieth century, global sea level rose about 17 cm. While this change may seem small, it will have many significant effects, most particularly in terms of reducing the return periods of extreme water levels and promoting an erosive tendency for coasts. There are significant actual and potential impacts of relative sea level rise in deltas and in and around subsiding coastal cities in terms of increased water logging, flooding, and submergence, and the resulting need for management response. Planning for sea level rise is a multidimensional problem that crosses many disciplines and embraces natural, social, and engineering sciences. Sea level rise has important implications for coasts worldwide, but the actual outcome will depend on our responses, both in terms of mitigation and adaptation, and their successes or failures. Coastal cities worldwide will be a major focus for adaptation efforts because of their concentrations of people and assets and given their concentration of people and assets, and their ability to fund large investments. Developing countries will pose adaptation challenges, especially in deltaic areas and small islands, which are the most vulnerable settings. The issues tackled in the paper include: (1) How to best plan for the threat of sea level rise and its implications? (2) What are the major responses are possible? (3) How to carry out adaptation and mitigation responses.

11

Understanding and projecting sea level change

Oceanography

24 (2), 2011

SLR

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To make projections of sea level rise and identify challenges faced in making projections
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Sea level rise projections based on AR4 model of IPCC, global and challenges of making regional projections
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Over the last decade, there has been significant progress in understanding of future sea level change and, as a result, confidence that global averaged sea level is rising and will continue to rise through the twenty-first century and beyond has increased. The amount of rise is dependent on future emissions of greenhouse gases. There are likely to be significant regional differences in the amount of sea level change from both ocean dynamic responses and changes in mass distribution, principally from a changing cryosphere. However, major deficiencies in our understanding remain, and current projections still cover a broad range of values regardless of emission scenarios. Perhaps the major challenge is the response of the ice sheets, particularly those parts grounded below sea level. A second set of challenges relates to better understanding of the regional distribution of sea level change, short-term prediction of sea levels, and the impacts of climate change on extreme events.

12

Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

Nature Climate Change, 1, 2011

MR

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: Document reviews existing knowledge on the responses of marine ecosystems to climate changes, and how these changes are expected to affect the economics of global marine fisheries, and describe approaches that can be used to adapt to these changes.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Oceans and seas
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change effects on fisheries
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Marine fisheries catches consist almost solely of fishes and invertebrates — animals that are strongly dependent on oceanographic conditions. Theory and recent experimental evidence suggest that changes in temperature and ocean chemistry directly affect the physiology, growth and reproduction of these organisms. There is also evidence that ocean acidification and expansion of oxygen minimum zones may have negative impacts on marine organisms and fisheries, although their generality is uncertain. Changes in environmental conditions also strongly affect the spatial distributions of marine fishes and invertebrates. The economic consequences of climate change on fisheries might manifest themselves through changes in the price and value of catches, fishing costs, fishers’ incomes, earnings to fishing com­panies, discount rates and economic rent (that is, the surplus after all costs, including ‘normal’ profits, have been covered), as well as throughout the global economy. Capital costs, that is, the cost of ves­sels, fishing gear, processing plants and so on, would be affected by climate change if additional capital for fishing and process­ing operations is required to adapt to climate change impacts on the quantity, composition and distribution of fisheries resources. Based on experience from historical responses of countries to fisheries changes, possible adaptation strategies include vessel buybacks, restricting the use of some gear types and livelihood diversification measures.

13

The need for new ocean conservation strategies in a high-carbon dioxide world

Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012

OO

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To analyse possibilities for conservation strategies to preserve ocean biodiversity
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Oceans and LMEs
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Ocean biodiversity
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The historically unprecedented threats to the marine environment posed by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will probably require the use of unconventional, non-passive methods to conserve marine ecosystems. Soliciting such approaches and evaluating their cost, safety and effectiveness must be part of a robust ocean conservation and management plan going forward. The paper advises that marine sci­ence and management communities should actively solicit and evaluate all potential marine management strategies, including unconventional ones, to determine which, if any, might satisfy the Convention on Biological Diversity’s call for cost-effective prevention of environ­mental degradation. It proposes that it is best to implement such strategies only after they have been shown to be necessary, safe and effective, that is, the socio-economic and ecological costs and benefits have been assessed. It must also be acknowledged that short of sta­bilizing if not reducing atmospheric CO2, there may ultimately be no perfect or even satisfactory conservation options for the ocean, either globally or regionally. The paper calls for: (1) the solicitation of new marine management and conser­vation methods; (2) the evaluation of their environmental, societal, and monetary cost effectiveness; and (3) policies that support the preceding.

14

The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones

Environment and Urbanization, 19, 2007

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The study integrates recently constructed, spatially explicit global databases and analyzes them to assess the distribution of population and settlement size in the low elevation coastal zone
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Urban settlements in low elevation coastal zones and populations that are at risk form sea- level rise
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Many coastal populations are at risk from flooding – particularly when high tides combine with storm surges and/or high river flows. The estimates of global mean sea-level rise in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC range from 22 centimetres to 34 centimetres, between 1990 and the 2080s. The risks to human settlements could be reduced if people and enterprises could be encouraged to move away from the coast, or at least from the most risk-prone coastal locations. Even as the seaward risks associated with climate change are increasing, the areas most at risk are experiencing particularly high population growth. There is considerable variation within regions and income categories, and there are a number of features that can lead a country to have a large share of its urban and rural populations in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ). These include long coastlines (relative to the country’s size), wide and heavily populated coastal lowlands, and sparsely populated interiors. Most of the countries with large populations in the LECZ are also among the most populous countries overall, with large Asian countries dominating. The countries with large shares of population (or urban population) in the LECZ are a more varied group, and include countries characterized by each of the three factors. Looking to the future, the responses to the growing risks to coastal settlements brought on by climate change should include mitigation, migration and modification.

15

Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

Global Environmental Change, 14, 2004

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The paper explores the potential benefits of mitigation of human-induced climate change in coastal areas, with an emphasis on sea-level rise. Its goal is to provide a solid basis for future discussions on this important issue across the spectrum of the science of sea-level rise and climate change and its possible impacts.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mitigation of coastal change inr coastal areas
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The local change in sea level at any coastal location depends on the global mean sea-level rise and regional deviations from this mean. Acceleration of the global-mean rise trend during the 20th century is difficult to detect because of the limited number of gauges with long records and the long period natural variability measured at each gauge. Projections of future sea level need to include both the response to future emissions of greenhouse gases and the ongoing response to past emissions. This latter component is the commitment to sea-level rise and will continue for many centuries into the future, even if the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosol particles in the atmosphere were stabilised immediately. Future sea-level rise can be estimated for different types of scenario using climate models of varying complexity. In addition to rising sea levels, future global climate change is expected to directly alter many other environmental factors. Mean temperatures are projected to increase around the globe. Mitigation will only significantly reduce the future rate and magnitude of sea-level rise after the middle of the 21st century and the largest benefits occur long into the future. Unmitigated impacts could be significant and are reduced to varying degrees by mitigation. Hence based on the available knowledge, a combination of mitigation and adaptation are required in coastal areas and both policies need to be assessed in an integrated manner to develop a response to climate change. Such assessment should also include the immediate benefits of adaptation in terms of the increased capacity to deal with climate variability.

16

Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Estuaries, 25 (2), 2002

CA

LME

MR

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, scientists, project developers
  • PURPOSE: The paper explores the potential impacts of climate change on a number of coastal and marine ecosystems and resources and proposes adaptation and coping strategies for each ecosystem
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: United States
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change impacts on coastal areas and marine ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The paper is a summary of the NAST 2001 coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.

17

Climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts: a North Atlantic perspective

Progress in Oceanography, 49, 2001

LME

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The paper reviews the findings and conclusion of studies, and relates the functions of various stocks of ground fish, pelagic and shellfish species in the North Atlantic to variability in marine climate
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: North Atlantic
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate variability and its effects on fisheries and ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: During the 20th Century, more especially during the past fifty years, major climatic variability in the North Atlantic has been attributed to long-term fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Not only has there been decadal scale variation, but also a tendency for the NAO index to swing from extreme ‘high’ to ‘low’ over many decades. These trends in the NAO have coincided with substantial changes in marine ecosystems, particularly on fish productivity. The NAO fluctuations have had differential effects on the ecosystems of the different regions of the North Atlantic, and so vary from area to area. This study examined links between climate change and productivity in selected species such as: planktons, fish, shellfish, lobster, crab and shrimp. Recent changes in the range and upsurges in the productivity of certain invertebrate species have also been influenced by environmental forcing caused by this climatic variability. While broad trends throughout the North Atlantic are evident, the mechanisms are often unclear. More research is required to improve understanding of the impacts of climate variability upon the productivity of various components of marine ecosystems. More comprehensive studies of the interactions between productivity declines driven by climate variability and fishing are required.

18

Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Organisms and Ecosystems

Current Biology, 19, 2009

MR

LME

SLR

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  • AIMED AT: Scientists
  • PURPOSE: The paper describes present-day climate change, setting it in context with historical change, considers consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and in to the future, and discusses contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Threats to marine resources, sea level rise
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Given the geographic variation in change in temperature, acidity and other factors, and the varying sensitivity of marine organisms and ecosystems, it is unlikely that any single strategy will alleviate impacts of climate change everywhere. A series of regionally-tailored response plans under local governance are required. However, on a global scale, an immediate reduction in CO2 emissions is essential to minimize future human-induced climate change. Improving models are increasing our ability to predict physical changes in the ocean that will impact marine and terrestrial biology, but we need to progress beyond prediction and monitoring of decline and act to halt degradation. Despite options for intervention, it may already be too late to avoid major irreversible changes to many marine ecosystems. As history has shown us, these changes in the ocean could have major consequences for the planet as a whole.

19

Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment Ecosystems Approach

European Science Foundation, 2007

CA

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, future researchers
  • PURPOSE: The report summarises the current state of knowledge with regard to general and regional-specific impacts of climate change on European marine and coastal environments, including climate variability
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: European marine and coastal environment, including the Arctic, Northeast Atlantic, Barents Sea, Nordic seas, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Celtic-Biscay Shelf, Iberian upwelling margin, Mediterranean Sea, and Black Sea
  • TECHNICAL AREA: climate change impact on European marine and coastal environment
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: It is estimated that annual air temperatures will rise throughout Europe relative to recent conditions, with the lowest increase (1°C to 2°C) in the Mediterranean, Iberian, North Sea, Northeast Atlantic and south Nordic Sea regions (IPCC 2001). Temperature increases will be higher (4°C to 6°C) in the more northern regions such as the northern Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea, and highest (up to 7°C) in the Arctic. Precipitation and runoff will increase in northern Europe and the Arctic, but will decrease in warmer regions such as the Mediterranean. As temperatures rise, sea-ice coverage will decrease; most climate models suggest an ice free summer in the Arctic by 2100. The report identified specific recommendations on future monitoring and indicators and with regards to future research needs.

20

Frontline Observations on Climate Change and Sustainability of Large Marine Ecosystems

UNDP/GEF, Large Marine Ecosystems, Vol. 17, 2012

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, experts developing GEF projects
  • PURPOSE: to assist in development of GEF supported projects with a view of introducing the issue of climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Benguela, Canary, Guinea, Agulhas and Somali, and Humboldt Currents LMEs; Bay of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico LMEs
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change threats on large marine ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The role of the GEF in supporting LME projects, with a focus on the GEF’s International Waters portfolio and the distribution of financial assistance to countries participating in LME sustainable development projects around the globe. Detailed analysis of climate change issues in LMEs. Special focus on acidification and impacts on marine resources

21

Oceanic implications for climate change policy

Environmental Science and Policy, 9, 2006

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Policy-makers
  • PURPOSE: To show how the inclusion of the EEZ CO2 sink within national carbon accounts would have significant implications in tracking national greenhouse commitments to any future climate change policy initiative
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global, Pacific Ocean
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Significance of the exclusive economic zone CO2 sink for inclusion within international climate policy
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Historically it has been difficult to estimate the oceanic anthropogenic CO2 sink. However there has been much progress over the last decade in measuring oceanic CO2 and other properties to constrain the net oceanic CO2 sink. As long as atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing the ocean will attempt to equilibrate and in doing so will absorb a portion of this anthropogenically produced CO2. The best example of a place where the gross natural ocean is a large source of CO2, but represents a net sink for anthropogenic CO2 is in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The coastal ocean is an important part of the global carbon cycle and it will be important to further explore the CO2 source/sink debate in the future. The policy analyses from this paper would extend to the coastal ocean, however it is far more difficult to determine the anthropogenic CO2 uptake within this regime given its heterogeneous nature. There is no doubt however that human activities both on the adjacent coastal land and also within the open ocean could have the potential to change the EEZ anthropogenic CO2 sink.

22

Adaptation in Europe

Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments

EEA, 2013

PG

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: This report draws on the experience of existing adaptation strategies and actions, promotes better informed decision-making in key vulnerable sectors and improved resilience across the EU. It supports the implementation of the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Europe
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Adaptations and actions responding to current and future climate change impacts and vulnerabilities
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: At EU‑level, the integration and mainstreaming of climate change in sectoral EU policies is the key policy 'lever' (areas where the EU has tools to act at its disposal) for advancing adaptation and alleviating pressures on human and natural systems. Integrated exercises assessing future consequences of climate change use tools and methods that incorporate assumptions and scenarios for both socio-economic developments and climate change variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation). Although the socio-economic variables are usually clearly differentiated from the climate change variables in terms of data inputs or assumptions, the majority of studies report their combined effect. There is no 'attribution' made to the role played by individual causes.

23

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Development Project (RiVAMP)

UNEP, 2010

WP

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Technical experts
  • PURPOSE: Methodology developed to quantify the role of ecosystems for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) as well as other benefits for sustainable development
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Latin America and the Caribbean, SIDS
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Coastal ecosystems, Coastal erosion, Climate change adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The methodology is to show how ecosystems could be used for resilience against adverse impacts of natural hazards in a context of climate change. It was conceived to develop a methodology that takes into account environmental factors in the analysis of disaster risk and vulnerability. While different types of risk and vulnerability assessments are available, what is new about RiVAMP is that it recognizes ecosystems and climate change in the risk assessment process. The purpose of RiVAMP is to use evidence-based, scientific and qualitative research to demonstrate the role of ecosystems in disaster risk reduction, and thus enable policymakers to make better-informed decisions that support sustainable development through improved ecosystems management. In this regard, the targeted end-users of RiVAMP are national and local government decision makers, especially land use and spatial development planners, as well as key actors in natural resource management and disaster management. As a pilot initiative, the RiVAMP methodology is intended mainly for application in SIDS or coastal areas, and focuses on tropical cyclones and their secondary effects (coastal storm surges, flooding and strong winds). Accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) associated with climate change is also considered as an important factor contributing to risk of storm surges and beach erosion. The long-term view is to develop related methodologies under RiVAMP which could be applied to other types of ecosystems, namely mountains, river basins and dry lands.

24

Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment

EIA Review, Article in Press, 2011

GT

External Link

  • AIMED AT: SEA practitioners
  • PURPOSE: The paper tests the hypothesis that SEA, when applied to spatial planning at regional and local levels, does not accommodate the CO2 reduction targets which are necessary for achieving the +2C limit, by determining what we might expect to see in any SEA considering climate change implications of a plan, in the sectors over which spatial planning has influence, and examining practice to see whether CO2 reduction targets are implemented.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Regional and local level
  • TECHNICAL AREA: SEA, CO2 reduction, wider implication on coasts and oceans
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Strategic Environmental Assessment is a particularly suitable instrument for the implementation of climate protection at the regional or local level, or in sectoral planning, such as transport planning. SEA can be seen as a real ‘policy integration tool’ to encourage greater attention in policy formation for climate change mitigation. SEA is a tool to assess the impacts on the environmental parameters listed in legislation, like soil, biodiversity, water etc. Methodological guidelines for devolving global climate protection targets down to the regional and local levels are necessary. Some first ideas about an operationalization and regionalization of targets have been made in this article. These guidelines should also contain concrete practical indications for the development of “climate friendlier” planning or programme alternatives, and for the development of avoidance, reduction and compensation measures, which ensure low climate impact.

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A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

Environmental Management, 43, 2009

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  • AIMED AT: Water managers and decision makers
  • PURPOSE: The article presents framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision- making
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Non specified
  • TECHNICAL AREA: climate change impact on water and watershed systems, methodology could be extended to marine systems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Following steps provide a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems: Define the Decision Context, Develop conceptual model, Assess available climate data, Downscale climate data, Select impact assessment models, Conduct sensitivity analysis and scenario planning, Risk management (Adaptation). A case study assessment in Monocacy River (USA) watershed provides an example of how the framework can be applied. Results suggest the potential for significant impacts, and have resulted in follow-up work assessing climate change impacts for the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as extension of the Monocacy assessment to include consideration of coupled climate and land use change scenarios.

26

An integrated spatial planning model for climate change adaptation in coastal zones

Ocean & Coastal Management, 66, 2012

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  • AIMED AT: Experts
  • PURPOSE: The paper highlights the spatial planning approach for coastal sustainability and adaptation to climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Taiwan
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Coastal Zone Management, spatial planning
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: An integrated spatial planning method, which balances the need and conflicting objectives of stakeholders while reflecting the dynamic changes in coastal systems produced by spatial planning solutions. This study has developed an optimization-stimulation model that is called Multi-Objective Programming and System Dynamic (MOPSD) to assist with spatial planning in coastal regions. One of its main goals is to mitigate the impact of climate change. MOPSD stimulates coastal area development under various spatial planning strategies that are based on the size of the coastal buffer zones. Decision makers are able to select optimal alternative within a dynamic environment for climate change adaptation in coastal zones. A case study of Chijin is shown where the MOPSD modeling approach generates superior solutions that each of the two traditional (MOP and SD) methods on their own. This is mainly attributed to the consideration of various deterministic and dynamic characteristics when evaluating the future of coastal regions.

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Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool

Global Environmental Change, 19, 2009

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, experts
  • PURPOSE: The purpose of this paper is to present the process by which the integrated model was developed.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Coastal zones, DIVA method, an interactive and modular method for assessing coastal vulnerability from sub-national to global levels
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: DIVA has been developed to meet the demand for new information on coastal vulnerability on a global scale, addressing important limitations of the earlier global studies. The DIVA method consists of two parts: a modeling framework and semi-automated development process. The DIVA method has been successfully applied to develop the DIVA tool. The DIVA tool comprises 4 main components: 1. A detailed global database with biophysical and socio-economic coastal data; 2. global and regionalized sea-level and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100; 3. an integrated model, consisting of interacting modules that assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts and the potential effects and costs of adaptation; 4. a graphical user interface for selecting data and scenarios, running model simulations and analyzing the results.

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More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change

Environmental Science and Policy, 11, 2008

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  • AIMED AT: Local, regional, state and federal governments, coastal managers
  • PURPOSE: The information needs of California coastal managers area explored as they are confronting the growing risks for climate change.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: California, USA
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Specific information and knowledge coastal managers need to begin with when planning and preparing for adaptation to climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: In this study, ‘‘coastal management’’ is defined as all management occupations concerned with the safety, environmental protection, public infrastructure, and development of coastal areas, on land and in near shore coastal waters. To assure coastal states and communities are beginning to prepare, mitigate, and adapt adequately to the impacts of climate change, this information should (ideally) percolate from scientists to the managers who need it most. The information that is generally used in the coastal managers' daily work is about environmental features. Next category of information used is weather, than socioeconomic information and geologic information. Interviewees identified various information management needs and specific ways to make available information more accessible and user-friendly. As sources of information coastal managers scientific journals, professional journals, in-house colleague, professional literature, State agency staff etc. coastal managers also use maps, GIS, analytic models, forecast models, decision support tools and database management to display, analyze and/or transform available technical information into useful management relevant information. To date, coastal managers insufficiently benefit from the available scientific information on coastal impacts of climate variability and change and sea-level rise, as it exists in largely untapped scientific journals, few experts are ever consulted, and relevant research institutions are not yet linked into the ‘‘management on the ground.’’ Moreover, coastal managers are interested in the topic and would be willing to address climate change impacts in their work, but they require financial and technical assistance from other agencies at the state and federal level or from one or more boundary organizations that can play the intermediary role of co-producing knowledge resources between science and management.

29

The Ocean and Climate Change

Tools and Guidelines for Action

IUCN, 2009

OO

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Download Here

External Link

  • AIMED AT: Decision makers
  • PURPOSE: The purpose of this report is to engage, inform and guide decision makers with regard to the development and implementation of marine and coastal climate change strategies and programmes
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Interaction between ocean and climate, describes the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystems and the goods and services they provide human society
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The document provides an overview of the interactions between the ocean and climate and describes the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystems and the goods and services they provide to human society. Further, it outlines a set of recommendations for marine-related mitigation and adaptation policy and implementation actions. The potential and limits of the ocean in climate change mitigation strategies is highlighted by sections on marine renewable energy resources, natural marine carbon sequestration, carbon capture and storage and ocean fertilization. The publication further stresses Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) as a means to improve social and ecosystem resilience to global ocean and climate change. Carefully designed marine protected areas and risk reduction management are included as means to reduce vulnerability of social and natural systems to future change.

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Adaptation to Climate Change and Strategic Environmental Assessment

IMCORE

AM

GT

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External Link

  • AIMED AT: SEA practitioners
  • PURPOSE: The objective of this report is to make an example if Strategic Environmental Assessment is a useful tool to facilitate decision-making in the light of climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: EU
  • TECHNICAL AREA: To integrate climate change in SEA
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: This report looks at possible entry points in the Strategic Environmental Assessment process to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation considerations, from the screening phase that precedes the initiation of the Strategic Environmental Assessment, to the scoping and the environmental report, detailed assessment and implementation stages. Furthermore the report assesses if the integration of climate change is already a commonly used practice in the countries of North-West Europe and if it is recommended at international and European level. It concludes that Strategic Environmental Assessment can be a useful tool to address the problems and promote actions on adaptation to climate change into the planning process as well as to highlight possible adaptation conflicts with other existing regional/national plans and programmes.

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STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

OECD, 2010

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External Link

  • AIMED AT: SEA practitioners
  • PURPOSE: To show how SEA approaches can help mainstream adaptation to climate change into strategic planning, in order to reduce the hazards, risks and vulnerabilities posed by climate change to systems and populations.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: A well-performed SEA can fulfill one or more of the following functions in relation to climate change adaptation: (i) an independent analysis of the likely performance of existing or new Policies, Plans or Programmes prepared without reference to climate change in light of new climate change predictions (effectively a form of climate proofing); (ii) an integrated planning and assessment process designed both to generate and test the response of PPP options to different climate scenarios, which are actively explored as part of the SEA; and (iii) a study process focusing entirely on predicting and quantifying the likely effects of climate change itself within a given area. The extent to which climate change considerations can be incorporated into an SEA, the level of detail required in the SEA process, and the relevance of the various questions outlined below, will depend on the entry point and the development activities and processes.

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Toolkit for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Projects

CARE

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  • AIMED AT: Practitioners
  • PURPOSE: The Toolkit offers practical, “how to” guidance for integrating climate change adaptation into the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of development projects. Its step-by-step structure helps users build climate-resilient projects with sustainable impacts.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Africa, Asia, Latin America
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Development projects, mainstreaming
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The Toolkit includes simple checklists to ensure that development activities don’t increase people’s vulnerability to climate change. It provides guidance and recommended tools for all stages of the project cycle, as well as tools, resources and practical examples from CARE projects around the world. Water resource management and agriculture projects are specifically highlighted, as they were targeted in the early tests of the Toolkit. 

This interactive Toolkit is designed to be flexible. Users can tailor the process to meet their needs, priorities and available resources. The Toolkit is designed to facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation into development projects. It is organized around the following, simplified stages in the project cycle: analysis, design and implementation. Information & knowledge management, including monitoring and evaluation, is treated as an ongoing function, which is integrated into each of these stages. For each stage in the project cycle, key issues are identified and step-by-step guidance is provided, as are recommended support tools and resources. Case studies and examples from field-testing the Toolkit on CARE projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America demonstrate how it can be used in practice.

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Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions

Environmental Science&Policy, 8, 2005

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstreaming can be most effective.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Development projects, mainstreaming, mitigation and adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: For over a decade, climate policy has been largely synonymous with energy policy, with little attention being given to enhancing sinks or to adaptation. The international climate policy community is now becoming aware that energy policy alone will not suffice in the quest to control climate change and limit its impacts. Climate policy is being expanded to consider a wide range of options aimed at sequestering carbon in vegetation, oceans and geological formations and at reducing the vulnerability of sectors and communities to climate change impacts. Linkages between climate change and development are increasingly recognized. Climate change is largely the result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions that are driven by socio-economic development patterns characterized by economic growth, technology, population and governance. These socio-economic development patterns, in turn, determine vulnerability to climate change and the human capacity for mitigation and adaptation. The impacts of climate change on human and natural systems in turn influence socio-economic development patterns and thereby greenhouse gas emissions.

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Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Strategic Environmental Assessment

EU, 2013

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The aim of this Guidance is to improve the consideration of these issues in strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) carried out across the EU Member States
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: EU
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Biodiversity and SEA
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The SEA Directive requires certain public Plans and Programmes to undergo an environmental assessment before they are adopted. Addressing climate change and biodiversity in the SEA process brings new challenges for the SEA practitioner. SEA should be used as an opportunity to address the key issues of climate change and biodiversity at an early stage, when many options are still open. SEA practitioners should outline climate scenarios that may either adversely affect implementation of the proposed Plans and Programmes or may worsen its impacts on biodiversity and other environmental factors. An analysis of alternatives is often viewed to be at the heart of the SEA process, as this provides confidence that the proposed course of action is the best one available. But there must be additional considerations of climate change and biodiversity issues if they are to be addressed effectively in SEAs.

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ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: A GUIDANCE MANUAL FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

USAID, 2007

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  • AIMED AT: Planners and stakeholders who cope with a changing climate
  • PURPOSE: The USAID Global Climate Change Team developed this Adaptation Guidance Manual to assist Missions and other partners to understand how climate change may affect their project outcomes and identify adaptation options to integrate into the design for more resilient projects.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Developing countries
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate variability and change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: This document presents the six-step approach for assessing vulnerability and identifying and implementing climate change adaptations (V&A approach) which follows a developmental path parallel to the more general project cycle. STEP 1 is to screen for vulnerability that involves screening a current or proposed project design to determine if it might be affected by climate variability or climate change. STEP 2 is to identify adaptation options for modifying the project in response to vulnerabilities identified by step 1. STEP 3 is to conduct analysis, implementing partners, stakeholders and experts to evaluate each of the adaptation options. The purpose of STEP 4 is to use the results from Step 3 to select one or more adaptations to be implemented with assistance form the project or program. STEP 5 are implement adaptations and STEP 6 is to evaluate adaptations.

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Adapting to coastal climate change: A guidebook for development planners

USAID, 2009

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  • AIMED AT: Policymakers and practitioners
  • PURPOSE: Guidebook is both a tool in itself and a link to other resources to help with efforts to build resiliency against the impacts of climate change
  • GEOGRAPHIC AREA: coastal zones and world oceans (approx. 40% of worlds population)
  • THEMATIC AREA: Climate change and climate variability, mainstreaming, coastal management
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The guidebook describes the 5-step process. Step 1: Assess vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment identifies numerous climate change risks and potential impacts to different sectors. Assessing a coastal area’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change involves understanding: 1) the climate projections for a given religion or locale, 2) what is at risk (climate change exposure and sensitivity) and 3) the capacity of society to cope with the expected of actual climate changes (adaptive capacity). Step 2: Select course of action. The first thing in selecting a course of action is to identify the priority climate change risks upon which to focus efforts and resources. Step 3: Mainstream coastal adaptation. It is important to recognize that climate changes adaptation presents a fundamental challenge to managing the coastal resources and should be “mainstreamed” into coastal management and developed at all levels. Step 4: Implement adaptation. It is important to strengthen legal framework and enforcement as well as personnel capabilities. Step 5: Evaluate for adaptive management. All evaluations of coastal adaptation measures involve a similar methodology and steps. The steps of the evaluation include the following: Specify evaluation questions, elaborate an evaluation plan, conduct the evaluation and communicate the results.

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Climate Variability and Change and Sea-level Rise in the Pacific Islands Region A Resource Book for Policy and Decision Makers, Educators and other Stakeholders

SPREP

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  • AIMED AT: Policy and decision makers, educators and other stakeholders
  • PURPOSE: The Resource Book is designed to be used widely as a tool for awareness- raising, being a summary of the latest knowledge about climate change as it relates to the Pacific Islands region.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Pacific Islands region
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate variability and change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The Resource Book comprises four main sections, reflecting the four principal dimensions of the climate issue- the changing climate, the observed and potential impacts, and the two broad categories of policy responses and actions, namely mitigation and adaptation. Climate and Sea-level Variability and change in the mentioned area suggest that it will continue to be dominated by the inter-annual variability, due to the enhanced greenhouse effect the Region will likely be warm. Consequences of Climate and Sea-level Variability and Change in the Pacific Island Countries may include extensive coastal erosion, droughts, coral bleaching, more widespread and frequent occurrence of mosquito- borne diseases, and higher sea levels. Mitigation, as a response to Climate and Sea-level Variability and Change, in Pacific Island Countries is normally best implemented through a collaborative partnership involving at least some of the key players: developed countries, government, the private sector, community-based organizations, investors, donors and the public at large. Adaptation is other response. It requires enhancement of institutional capacity, developing expertise and building knowledge. It also needs an external entity to facilitate the adaptation process.

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Communicating climate change: history, challenges, process and future directions

WIRES, 1, 2010

SI

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External Link

  • AIMED AT: Public and policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The core of the paper focuses on key aspects of the communication process (purpose and scope of the communication, audience, framing, messages, messengers, modes and channels of communication, and assessing the outcomes and effectiveness of a communication).
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Communicating climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Today, after more than 20 years of scientific progress and a much greater scientific consensus, public climate change communication is no longer just a communication between experts. Thanks to media, it is now something that is discussed in general public. Concern, sense of urgency, and importance vary greatly across populations, and understanding of the causes and the stakes remains limited. The very purpose of climate change communication and audience choice are closely linked. The purpose of climate change communication is a critical first consideration. The second basic purpose of communication efforts is to achieve some type and level of social engagement and action. The third category of communication efforts aims even deeper by trying to foster not just political action or context-specific behavior modification, but to bring about changes in social norms and cultural values that act more broadly. If a particular communication goal has been set and an audience chosen, the way in which the climate change story is told is an inevitable element of communication, a powerful influence on how the audience is to interpret the information provided, and a strategically important choice. Frames construct a problem, provide a perspective from which to interpret it, even help us perceive some aspects of it, while disregarding or overlooking others, and deeply influence how persuasive we find the information being communicated. The message of climate change communication depends on who the audience is, who conveys the message, the channel through which a message is being conveyed; the place and context in which audiences receive the information, how they are likely to process the message received, the goals of the communication. But despite this context- dependency, some general guidelines can be provided. Messengers are integral aspects of the framing; they are also critically important in establishing the credibility of the information conveyed.

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Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

Environmental Management, 43, 2009

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The objective of this paper is to introduce how a mainstreaming approach can be operationalized
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Mozambique and Tanzania
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Definition of and a approach to mainstreaming
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The idea of the mainstreaming approach is to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in the context of development. In a more simple way it can be said that the aim of mainstreaming assessments is to ensure that current, as well as future development policies, are well adapted to the climate and this can imply that some adaptation options are recommended. This way the mainstreaming approach aims at assessing the relationship between the climate and development in general, without giving specific consideration to distinguishing anthropogenic climate change impacts and vulnerabilities from climate vulnerability of development policies, per se. A step-wise mainstreaming approach for assessing adaptation can include 5 analytical elements: Element 1: Climate Conditions, Variability and Future Changes; Element 2: Selection of Development Indicators: Element 3: Assessing the Relationship between Climate Variables and Development Indicators related to Specific Activities; Element 4: Adaptation options; and Element 5: Assessment of adaptation options, in order to measure the costs and development impacts of implementing these options.

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Guide to Considering Climate Change in Environmental Assessments in Nova Scotia

EcoAdapt, 2011

GT

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External Link

  • AIMED AT: Project proponents
  • PURPOSE: The intent of this Guide is to assist project proponents in determining if the consideration of climate change would be beneficial to their project and how and where to incorporate climate change in a project’s EA.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Nova Scotia, Canada
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change in environmental assessment
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: For each environmental assessment component, this Guide provides succinct advice on how to address climate change considerations. The Project Description will include information relevant to assessing the environmental impact of a project. Climate change considerations can be readily incorporated into these elements. The Existing Environment section of the EA will already include information on the local climate and meteorology in the vicinity of the project site. But, it can also include a summary of climate change projections for the project location where available. Specific consideration of climate change should be added to Issue Scoping. The scoping process should specifically consider whether or not climate change could impact the environmental concerns. Valued Environmental Components list will not be substantially affected by incorporating climate change. Climate change does not significantly alter the way in which proponent will conduct the impact assessment. The determination of the Significant Impacts and how these are defined does not change. However, if through the preceding steps of the EA, the project impacts in combination with climate change impacts on a VEC are evident then the proponent/practitioner should assess and discuss whether the significance of the combined impact increases or decreases the significance. Effects of the Environment on the Project is the most appropriate section for the assessment of climate change impacts on the project and to identify those components of the project that are vulnerable to climate change. Mitigation in EA refers to both measures to be taken to reduce GHG emissions; and measures to be taken to make the project less vulnerable to climate change. In addition, the mitigation section of the EA should describe what measures the proponent will take to reduce the significance of the identified combined project climate change impacts on climate sensitive VECs.

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Voluntary Step-by-Step Guide for considering Potential Climate Change Effects on Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Projects

Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Program, 2012

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  • AIMED AT: Project applicants
  • PURPOSE: To assist experts to consider potential climate change impacts
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: US
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Coasts, conservation, estuaries
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Coastal areas historically have been the preferred geography for human settlements and development, and coastal ecosystems are one of the most degraded natural systems because of this social trend. Climate change is forecasted to exacerbate current environmental degradation and further alter coastal landscapes, as coastal areas and ecosystems are some of the more vulnerable places to climate change. The guide proposes a 7-step process for considering potential impacts of climate change: Step 1: Identify conservation targets; Step 2: Identify key ecological attributes: Step 3: Identify existing non-climate stressors on key ecological attributes; Step 4: Identify projected climate stressors/impacts; Step 5: Evaluate climate effects on conservation targets; Step 6: Identify long-term management goals and objectives; Step 7: Formulate a long-term management plan. Each step is described with an example, why the step is important, how to use it and helpful resources.

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Integrating disaster risk management into climate change adaptation

ADPC, 2013

AM

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External Link

  • AIMED AT: Disaster Risk management practitioner: specifically those DRM practitioners who are government officials and have the role of responsibility to manage or reduce disaster risks
  • PURPOSE: The handbooks aims to provide advice to the DRM practitioner on both strategic and practical options for operational implementation of DRM within a selection of development processes and tools.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Asia and the Pacific
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Integrating Disaster Risk Management into climate change adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Managing climate-related disaster risks includes preparation for extreme events and climate variability potentially arising out of climate changes. DRM and CCA have very similar aims in terms of promoting resilience in the face of hazards. They both focus on reducing vulnerability by improving the ways to anticipate, cope with and recover from their impacts. However, DRM and CCA are not the same as each field has its own concerns, with DRM looking to manage risks from all hazards and CCA looking to help societal systems and undertakings adapt to a changing climate. DRM tends to be looked after by civil defense authorities, while CCA tends to be looked after by ministries of environment. The two fields overlap in a common area, as both are concerned reducing vulnerability, with monitoring climate-related hazards and reducing exposure to these, and raising societal capacities to manage climate risks.

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Incorporating Climate Change Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners

Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency

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  • AIMED AT: EA practitioners
  • PURPOSE: The purpose of this document is to provide environmental assessment (EA) practitioners with general guidance for incorporating climate change considerations in project EA
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Canada
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Environmental Assessment
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The document provides general guidance, to be considered at the discretion of jurisdictions and regulatory authorities and includes: methods that can be used to obtain and evaluate information concerning a project's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of climate change on a project; key sources of information that practitioners can use to address climate change considerations in project EA; and methodology to encourage the consistent consideration of climate change in the EA process across federal, provincial and territorial jurisdictions and institutions of public government responsible for EA.

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Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy Guidance

OECD, 2012

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  • AIMED AT: sectoral Ministries, local governments, project planners and donor agencies
  • PURPOSE: This policy guidance is intended to provide policy makers and practitioners in development co-operation agencies with information and advice on how to mainstream climate change into development.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREAS: Climate change adaptation, development co-operation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Implementing and “mainstreaming” adaptation is the approach of this policy guidance. While in certain situations stand- alone adaptation measure will be needed – for example to partially drain a potentially dangerous glacial lake - in most other cases adaptation measures will need to be implemented as part of a broader suite of measures within existing development processes and decision cycles. This is known as “mainstreaming”. This policy guidance takes an integrated or “whole of government” approach to adaptation. Specifically, four levels of governance are examined: centralized national ministries and decision processes at the national level; sectoral ministries; project level; and the local level which includes both urban and rural contexts.

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Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in developing countries

UN, IIED, 2003

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers in least developed countries
  • PURPOSE: The document provides examples and ways forward on how the least developed countries can mainstream the adaptation to climate change in their ongoing national development priorities.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Least developed countries, Bangladesh, Mali
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming the adaptation to climate change in least development countries
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The LDCs have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases, but they are the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change and they have least capacity to adapt to these changes. This report studies the experience of two LDC countries: Mali and Bangladesh. Mainstreaming adaptation in Bangladesh touches upon, among other, major project on integrated Coastal Zone Management, which allowed involved project managers to readily see the utility of incorporating climate change issues into their programming and planning. Efforts made to mainstream adaptation to climate change into national planning and activities in different sectors in Mali have been relatively successful for the agricultural sector, which already has a long history of working on drought prone agriculture. In the area of energy it was moderately successful. However, in other sectors (such as water resources) and at the national policy-making and planning levels, it has been less successful.

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Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in developing countries

IDS, 2006

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  • AIMED AT: National governments and donors
  • PURPOSE: The report intends to promote discussion on opportunities for further action research and on strategies for increasing awareness and information related to climate adaptation in development sectors.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Pacific islands, Caribbean countries
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming climate adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Developing countries, despite having contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions, are likely to be the most affected by climate change because they lack the institutional, economic and financial capacity to cope with the multiple impacts. Within developing countries, not all groups are affected equally. There are now a wide range of frameworks or instruments available to assess climate change impacts and options for adaptation. These include specific tools for assessment in specific sectors or regional context, as well as broader policy instruments that consider mainstreaming of adaptation responses such as Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA), prepared through the UNFCCC process and the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF). In developed countries, progress has been limited on mainstreaming climate adaptation. Programs to reduce climate risk have been identified and there is a consensus that actions need to be taken to reduce these risks. But, most developing countries are still in the very early stages of identifying appropriate responses to climate change risks, limiting practical experience of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development planning. The documents provides recommendations to countries to improve mainstreaming of climate change into development projects.

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Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation: A Practitioner’s Handbook

CARE, 2009

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  • AIMED AT: This handbook is primarily designed for CARE in Vietnam programme management (programme managers, component managers, project staff and programme officers) and project partners working at the district and commune level, but may prove useful to other development NGOs
  • PURPOSE: The handbook will assist in analyzing the implications of climate change for the lives and livelihoods of the communities CARE work with
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Vietnam with implications for other countries
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming climate change into projects
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The handbook provides: methodology; practical tools; case studies; guidance and relevant information on how to assess project and program vulnerability to climate variability and change; and how to design and adapt projects so that they are more resilient to a range of climate change scenarios. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation is described as a process of considering climate risks to development projects, and of adjusting project activities and approaches to address these risks. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation can achieve three main objectives: (i) reducing the risks posed by climate change to project activities, stakeholders, and results, sometimes referred to as ‘climate-proofing’; and (ii) ensuring that project or program activities maximize their contribution to adaptive capacity of target populations; and (iii) do not inadvertently increase vulnerability to climate change. The seven-step approach for mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the operational level, known as the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Pathway (CVA Pathway), is proposed. It follows a development path parallel to the project cycle. Step 1: Assess project activities for climate risk, Step 2: Decide on the CVA Pathway, Step 3: identify Adaptation Measures, Step 4: Prioritize Adaptation Measures, Step 5: Select Adaptation Option(s) for Implementation, Step 6: Implement Adaptation Measures, Step 7: Evaluate Adaptation and the CVA Pathway.

48

Guide to the Integration of Climate Change Adaptation into the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Process

SPREP, World Bank, GEF, CIDA, 2004

GT

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  • AIMED AT: Practitioners
  • PURPOSE: To assist CARICOM and SPREP country practitioners with the integration of climate change adaptation considerations into the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Caribbean and South Pacific Region
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Environmental Assessment, Climate change adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The Guide does not propose to establish a new or parallel EIA process but rather identifies a few simple steps to be taken when utilizing existing EIA processes and procedures. It states that the EIA process should: a) evaluate a project's potential environmental risks and impacts in its area of influence; b) identify and evaluate potential impacts from climate change on the project's area of influence; c) examine project alternatives; d) identify ways of improving project selection, siting, planning, design, and implementation by preventing, minimizing, mitigating, or compensating for adverse environmental impacts and anticipated adverse impacts from climate change, and enhancing positive impacts; and e) include the process of managing and adapting to adverse environmental impacts and anticipated adverse impacts from climate change throughout project implementation.

49

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development planning

SEI, 2012

PG

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: The report reviews the main approaches proposed and lessons learned form relevant experiences in the Asia-Pacific Region
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Asia-Pacific Region
  • THEMATIC AREA: Mainstreaming adaptation into development planning
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The expected benefits of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development activities include avoided policy conflicts; reduced risks and vulnerability; greater efficiency compared to managing adaptation separately, and leveraging the much larger financial flows in sectors affected by climate risks that the amounts available for financing adaptation separately. Mainstreaming adaptation into development planning will need to consider at least national, sectoral and sub-national levels. Several guides and frameworks have been proposed on how to integrate climate change concerns into ongoing national development processes: four-step framework for mainstreaming at national level, framework with three main components: 1) finding the entry points and making the case, 2) mainstreaming adaptation into policy processes, and 3) meeting the implementation challenge. The third framework was developed by OECD and was comprehensive and oriented towards national policy and planning systems and it is very complex.

50

Strategic Environmental Assessment and Climate Change: Guidance for Practitioners

USEPA, 2004

PG

GT

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  • AIMED AT: SEA practitioners
  • PURPOSE: This leaflet explains how climate change issues can be considered in strategic environmental assessment (SEA), with particular reference to the requirements of European SEA Directive
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: EU
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change, SEA
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The SEA Directive requires authorities to assess the likely significant effects of their plans and programmes on "the environment, including on issues such as biodiversity, population, human health, fauna, flora, soil, water, air, climatic factors, material assets, cultural heritage including architectural and archaeological heritage, landscape and the interrelationship between the above factors". The document states that climate change needs to be considered at various stages of the SEA process.

51

Incorporating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Environmental Impact Assessments Opportunities and Challenges

OECD, 2011

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  • AIMED AT: Policy Makers
  • PURPOSE: The paper provides an overview of the key steps in an Environmental Impact Assessment process and identifies potential entry points for incorporating information on climate change impacts.
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global, Netherlands, Canada, Australia
  • THEMATIC AREA: EIA, climate change integration
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Existing initiatives are based on a three-level framework that starts with an analysis of broad trends and becomes progressively more specific. First level is intentions. Among the developed countries Canada is probably furthest along in terms of recognition of climate change considerations within the context of EIA. The incorporation of climate change impacts is a requirement of the EIA process for major development projects. Level two is operational guidance and adjustment of legal and regulatory frameworks. Level 3 is implementation. Three countries are taken as an example (Netherlands, Canada and Australia) who already have some level of integration of climate change adaptation in their EIA legal framework.

52

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific: A Practical Guide

SPREP and UNDP, 2013

GT

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  • AIMED AT: Country practitioners, regional governments and organisations, development partners
  • PURPOSE: The guide aims to provide a practical step-by-step framework on how to mainstream climate change into Pacific island countries and territories development planning and decision-making processes
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Pacific island countries
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change adaptation, mainstreaming
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) project has put together this guide as a response to the need from PACC-participating countries to integrate climate change risks into their national and sector strategies and plans, and budgetary processes. The recommended approach combines standard policy cycles commonly used in the Pacific with analytical inputs from the climate risk management (CRM) framework. This forms a seven-phase process representing a broad outline of how to mainstream climate risk into development planning and policy processes, with analytical inputs, outputs and key decisions described for each step. Steps include: preparatory activities; situation analysis; problem analysis; solution analysis; design of the outputs; implementation, monitoring and evaluation; and review. The guide operates at two levels: strategic level mainstreaming, and "on the ground" level mainstreaming. The process is illustrated with detailed case studies drawn from the region.

53

Impacts of climate change on fisheries

Journal of Marine Systems, 79, 2010

MR

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Fisheries experts
  • PURPOSE: The main aim of the paper is to assemble and analyze evidence of effects of climate on fisheries in order to (I) show that climate affects the distribution, productivity and resilience of fish stocks, (ii) develop understanding of the processes, and (iii) draw lessons from past experience
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global, North Atlantic, Tropical Pacific, Tanzania, North Sea, Baltic
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Fisheries, climate change and variability, marine ecosystems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the “normal” climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety of direct and indirect effects of a number of physical and chemical factors, which include temperature, winds, vertical mixing, salinity, oxygen, pH and others. The direct effects act on the physiology, development rates, reproduction, behaviour and survival of individuals and can in some cases be studied experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes can be investigated in experiments and by analysis of field data, particularly by assembling comparative data from regional examples. Although our existing knowledge is in many respects incomplete it nevertheless provides an adequate basis for improved management of fisheries and of marine ecosystems and for adapting to climate change. In order to adapt to changing climate, future monitoring and research must be closely linked to responsive, flexible and reflexive management systems.

54

Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Annual Review of Marine Science, 4, 2012

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Marine scientists
  • PURPOSE: To identify major impacts of climate change on marine resources
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: US
  • TECHNICAL AREA: LMEs, climate and global change, coral reefs, polar systems
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Mid-altitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

55

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development planning: A Guide for Practitioners

UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative, 2011

PG

GT

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  • AIMED AT: Practitioners engaged in mainstreaming activities
  • PURPOSE: To provide practical, step-by-step guidance on how governments and other national actors can mainstream climate change adaptation into national development planning as part of broader mainstreaming efforts
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming, climate change adaptation, poverty alleviation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The framework proposed here consists of three components, each of which involves a set of activities or modules for which a range of tactics, methodologies and tools can be used: (i) Finding the entry points and making the case is concerned with setting the stage for mainstreaming. It involves understanding the linkages between climate change and national development priorities and understanding the governmental, institutional and political contexts that inform efforts to define pro-poor adaptation outcomes, find entry points into development planning, and make the case for adaptation mainstreaming; (ii) Mainstreaming adaptation into policy processes focuses on integrating climate change adaptation issues into an ongoing policy process, such as a national development plan or sector strategy, based on country-specific evidence (i.e., impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments, socio-economic analysis and demonstration projects); and (iii) Meeting the implementation challenge aims at ensuring mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into budgeting and financing, implementation and monitoring, and the establishment of mainstreaming as standard practice. Stakeholder engagement occurs throughout, from inception through policy development, implementation and monitoring.

56

Mainstreaming climate policy and policy coherence:

A background report for the compiling of the foresight report of Vanhanen’s second government

Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2009

PG

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To review the main challenges to mainstreaming climate policy and policy coherence and to evince new ways of strengthening Finland’s climate policy
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Finland
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming, climate change adaptation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The report describes issues related to the mainstreaming of climate policy from the perspectives of both horizontal and vertical integration and brings together examples of the measures of other countries. In light of these, the report makes recommendations as to how mainstreaming and policy coherence can be enhanced. Initially mainstreaming and policy coherence can be enhanced by further developing the existing administrative processes and structures and creating new measures focusing specifically on the mainstreaming of climate change. Here we present the main recommendations of our report.

57

Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance

Tyndall Centre, 2007

PG

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers
  • PURPOSE: To respond to the need to mainstream adaptation to climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming, climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The paper assesses the screening of the development agencies' project portfolios activities to date, focusing on both the results and the methods applied. Based on this assessment the paper identifies opportunities for development agencies to expand their current focus on the links between climate and development. Most agencies already consider climate change as a real but uncertain threat to future development, but they have given less thought to how different development patterns might affect vulnerability to climate change. The screenings undertaken have shown the need to take a comprehensive approach to adaptation and its integration into development planning and sectoral decision-making, and a number of policy initiatives have been taken to promote such integration. The paper provides some initial guidance as to how portfolio screening can be carried out in a way that would allow agencies to assess systematically the relevance of climate change to their ongoing and planned development projects.

58

Screening Tools and Guidelines to Support the Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Development Assistance – A Stocktaking Report

UNDP, 2010

PG

GT

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  • AIMED AT: Policy Makers
  • PURPOSE: To take stock of the climate risk screening tools, mainstreaming guidelines, and portfolio screening experience from the donor community
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming, climate changes
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The report explores the rationale for mainstreaming, outlines the main components necessary to operationalize mainstreaming, and indicates the various relevant levels and associated entry points to consider in the mainstreaming process. After this, it discusses and illustrates how key climate change adaptation and mainstreaming concepts are defined and used – both in relevant literature and in practice – as well as how they relate to development. It then focuses on climate risk screening methods tools and guidance and explores how climate risk screening efforts can be categorized in relation to mainstreaming, plus the components of mainstreaming that are addressed in the variety of climate risk screening tools and guidance. Finally, it provides a comparative overview and analysis of climate risk screening tools and guidance.

59

The challenges of environmental mainstreaming into development institutions and decisions

IIED, 2009

PG

GT

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  • AIMED AT: Policy Makers
  • PURPOSE:To develop a guide to a range of approaches and tools/methods for environmental mainstreaming applied at different levels (e.g. national, district, community) and by a range of users, and to identify which approaches and tools work best, for what purpose and for which user
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Caribbean, Chile, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ghana, India, Kenya, Uganda, Philippines, South Africa
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Mainstreaming, climate change, development
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The paper reviews the context and challenges to environmental mainstreaming (EM), discusses what it takes to achieve effective EM, and provides a roadmap for selecting operational EM methods and tools. The focus is on those approaches and tools which directly help to shape policies, plans and decisions;not the wider array of secondary tools applied to implement those decisions. The conclusion is that too many tools are being ‘pushed’ by outside interests, and too few locally developed (and more informal, or less expensive) approaches are widely known. There is not enough ‘demand-pull’ information from potential users. Neither is there enough information available that helps them to select the right tool themselves – as opposed to taking what others want or suggest/promote. Given the prevalence of ‘top-down’ material promoting particular mainstreaming techniques on the one hand, and the paucity of really effective mainstreaming to date on the other, the conclusion is that environmental mainstreaming capacity will be much stronger if stakeholders are able to select tools, methods and tactics that are relevant to their context. Some of these will be widely used and others still in development; some are easy to do and others demanding of skills and money; some are effective but others are not.

60

Methodology for the GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme. Volume 5. Methodology for the Assessment of Large Marine Ecosystems

UNEP, 2011

LME

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  • AIMED AT: Policy Makers, Experts working on the TWAP project, Marine scientists, Marine spatial planners
  • PURPOSE: Guide for the assessment of the LMEs within the TWAP project with the aim of advising GEF for its future investments
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Indicators, data and information management, ecosystem assessment methodology
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The methodology for assessment of Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) was developed under the Global Environment Facility (GEF) medium size project (MSP) ‘Development of the Methodology and Arrangements for the GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme (TWAP)’. LMEs, 64 of which have been defined globally, are natural regions of coastal ocean space encompassing waters from river basins and estuaries to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and seaward margins of coastal currents and water masses. They are relatively large regions of 200 000 km2 or more, the natural boundaries of which are based on four ecological criteria: bathymetry, hydrography, productivity, and trophically related populations. The documents provides methodological guidelines to execute the LMEs assessment. The approach to the assessment and management of LMEs is based on five modules, with corresponding suites of indicators: Productivity, Fish and Fisheries, Pollution and Ecosystem Health, Socio-economics, and Governance. A central theme of TWAP is the vulnerability of ecosystems and human communities to natural and anthropogenic stressors, and impairment of ecosystem services. A conceptual framework was developed that explicitly shows the links between human vulnerability and natural and anthropogenic stressors, ecosystem services and consequences for humans (with governance as an overarching concept), so that cause and effect can be better identified. This framework also accommodates other ecosystem services in addition to fish and fisheries. Further, it incorporates the five LME modules and integrates ecological, socio-economic, and governance indicators into a unified LME assessment framework. Special reference is given to natural drivers such as climate variability and the global threat of climate change.

61

Methodology for the GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme. Volume 6. Methodology for the Assessment of the Open Ocean

IOC-UNESCO, 2011

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Policy Makers, Experts working on the TWAP project, Marine scientists, Marine spatial planners
  • PURPOSE: Guide for the assessment of the Open Ocean within the TWAP project with the aim of advising GEF for its future investments
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Indicators, data and information management, ecosystem assessment methodology
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: A sister volume to Reference 60. For the purposes of TWAP, the open ocean is defined as the ocean areas beyond the defined LME areas. The proposed TWAP open ocean assessment will address these challenges through a globally-scoped assessment that directly addresses four broad themes: climate, ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and pollution. Rather than carving the open ocean into assessment units based on natural system criteria (which can vary depending on the scientific discipline consulted, and whether the surface, mid, or deep ocean is being considered), the assessment will take the cue from the human system side and the global governance arrangements already in place and focus on a global thematic assessment. Special section is related to climate change and variability. The assessment issues covered in this section are linked to human emissions of greenhouse gases, which create a natural system stress by changing the physical and chemical environment of the open oceans. The physical changes having direct consequence for human population are sea-level rise, increased ocean heat content, changes in global patterns of rainfall and drought, impacts on corals, primary productivity and distribution and transport of oxygen. Chemical change discussed is ocean acidification. The report describes a number of indicators related to climate change.

62

Climate change and the oceans – What does the future hold?

Marine Pollution Bulletin, 74, 2013

OO

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, experts developing projects
  • PURPOSE: Examination of major present and potential future impacts of climate change on the oceans
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Detailed analysis of physical and chemical impacts: temperature rise, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The basic hypothesis of the paper is that combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation is already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of these impacts mirror similar events in the Earth’s past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species’ groups. The paper reviews the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth’s history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect. The paper gives very good description of the the three basic impacts and can be very useful during project development phase.

63

Climate Change in Coastal Zones of the Mediterranean: Background Paper

Priority Actions Programme Regional Activity Centre, 2010

CA

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, experts developing projects
  • PURPOSE: Background information on major impacts of climate change on coastal areas
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Mediterranean
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Projection of major parameters, adaptation measures and related case studies
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: After reviewing the current national circumstances of MAP Contracting Parties, terms of their physical environment, their major ecosystems and their socioeconomic status, the document establishes a broad indication of sensitivity to climate change. The paper then considers current status of vulnerability and adaptation initiatives across MAP Contracting Parties (CPs), which involves a review of the range of plans and strategies and projects and programmes operative in the region at various temporal and spatial scales. The purpose of the review exercise was to establish a broad measure of the potential adaptive capacity associated with specific CPs. Through the course of this exercise, a number of approaches to coastal adaptation were show-cased with a view to highlighting best practice for subsequent application in a Mediterranean context. The measures, options and actions associated with discrete “types” of adaptation were discussed to inform the identification of the most relevant approaches for the complex range of climate change issues to which the MAP CPs are susceptible. The review has identified a number of key issues and information gaps that inhibit a proactive and coordinated approach to climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean coastal zone. Overall, the information contained within this report provides the necessary background information to develop recommendations for PAP/RAC, to support adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal zones, but could also have wider implications due to generic nature of many recommendations in the report.

64

A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise

IOP Science, 2012

SLR

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  • AIMED AT: Policy makers, economic experts
  • PURPOSE: To analyse economic impacts of sea level rise, which is less analysed aspect of climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: To investigate the possibility that sea level rise impacts negatively on economic growth and represents an obstacle to development and poverty reduction
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The paper provides background information on problem of sea level rise. Its contribution is threefold. First, it proposes a framework to discuss the economic growth impact of sea level rise. Second, it reviews the channels through which sea level rise can affect economic growth, namely the loss of land, the loss of infrastructure and physical capital, the loss of social capital, the additional cost from extreme events and coastal floods, and the increased expenditure for coastal protection. Finally, it discusses how existing studies on the direct impact of sea level rise could be used to investigate the resulting consequences on economic growth, emphasizes research needs on this question, and discusses consequences on migration. The main conclusion of this paper is that sizable impacts of sea level rise on economic growth and welfare are possible, at least at the regional scale, even though it is difficult to quantify this effect with current knowledge.

65

The role of ecosystems in coastal protection - Adapting to climate change and coastal hazards

Ocean and Coastal Management, In Press

CA

SLR

External Link

  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Review of possibilities ecosystems offer for coastal protection against impacts of climate change
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global, emphasis on tropical areas
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Description of coastal ecosystems: coastal wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves, beaches, dunes and barrier islands; very good list of references
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The paper starts with the hypothesis that coastal ecosystems, particularly intertidal wetlands and reefs (coral and shellfish), can play a critical role in reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to rising seas and coastal hazards, through their multiple roles in wave attenuation, sediment capture, vertical accretion, erosion reduction and the mitigation of storm surge and debris movement. The paper describes the factors that affect the strength or efficacy of these ecosystem services in different locations, as well as management interventions which may restore or enhance such values. The authors argue that improved understanding and application of such knowledge form a critical part of coastal adaptation planning, likely reducing the need for expensive engineering options in some locations, and providing a complementary tool in hybrid engineering design. Furthermore, they argue that irrespective of future climate change, coastal hazards already impact countless communities and the appropriate use of ecosystem-based adaptation strategies offers a valuable and effective tool for present-day management. Maintaining and enhancing coastal systems will also support the continued provision of other coastal services, including the provision of food and maintenance of coastal resource dependent livelihoods.
66

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Nature, Vol 463, 2010 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Better understanding of climate change scenario-making aspects
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Description of next generation of scenarios
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
67 Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change PNAS, Vol. 106, No. 38, 2009 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Insight into climate variability
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Analysis of climate variability
  • BASIC STRUCTURE:Global mean temperature at the Earth’s surface responds both to externally imposed forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as to natural modes of variability internal to the climate system. Variability associated with these latter processes, generally referred to as natural long-term climate variability, arises primarily from changes in oceanic circulation. Here we present a technique that objectively identifies the component of inter-decadal global mean surface temperature attributable to natural long-term climate variability. Removal of that hidden variability from the actual observed global mean surface temperature record delineates the externally forced climate signal, which is monotonic, accelerating warming during the 20th century.
68 4th IPCC Assessment Report: Regional Climate Projections IPCC, 2007 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Present reliable regional climate projections per major world region
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Regional
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Regional projections of climate change
  • BASIC STRUCTURE:The summary statements for each world region presents the following: (1) Temperature projectionsThese are comparable in magnitude to those of the TAR and confi dence in the regional projections is now higher due to a larger number and variety of simulations, improved models, a better understanding of the role of model defi ciencies and more detailed analyses of the results. Warming, often greater than the global mean, is very likely over all landmasses. (2) Precipitation projectionsOverall patterns of change are comparable to those of TAR, with greater confi dence in the projections for some regions. Model agreement is seen over more and larger regions. For some regions, there are grounds for stating that the projected precipitation changes are likely or very likely. For other regions, confi dence in the projected change remains weak. (3) Extremes:There has been a large increase in the available analyses of changes in extremes. This allows for a more comprehensive assessment for most regions. The general fi ndings are in line with the assessment made in TAR and now have a higher level of confi dence derived from multiple sources of information. The most notable improvements in confi dence relate to the regional statements concerning heat waves, heavy precipitation and droughts. Despite these advances, specifi c analyses of models are not available for some regions, which is refl ected in the robust statements on extremes. In particular, projections concerning extreme events in the tropics remain uncertain. The diffi culty in projecting the distribution of tropical cyclones adds to this uncertainty. Changes in extra-tropical cyclones are dependent on details of regional atmospheric circulation response, some of which remain uncertain.
69 Green Economy in a Blue World UNEP, 2012 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Report prepared for Rio+20 Summit to present the need for and advantages of green and blue economy
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Sectoral presentation of green and blue economy, marine ecosystem services
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: This report highlights ways to reduce the environmental impact and improve the environmental, economic and social sustainability of traditional and emerging ocean-oriented economies. It shows where fisheries, tourism and maritime transportation can take steps to reduce their impact on the marine environment. In doing so, these industries themselves can become more efficient and profitable and sustainable and can contribute directly to the sustainability and productivity of other businesses and livelihoods that depend on healthy oceans and coasts. Marine ecosystem services have substantial economic value. While exact figures are still debated, attempts to estimate the value of coastal ecosystem services have found such values to be on the order of trillions of US dollars annually. The report emphasises the need for ecosystem valuation, a growing field in academia, that helps us create new opportunities for reconciling use and protection of the coastal and marine environment. Payment for Ecosystem Services represent one of these opportunities, whereby the protection of valuable services such as clean water is financially supported by the beneficiaries of those services, often at much lower cost than more technology-driven approaches to service provision. The report shows that investment in Green Economy in a Blue World pays off.
70 The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity TEEB, 2008 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Report prepared for G8+5 meeting to present the case for payment for ecosystem services
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Valuation of ecosystem services
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: Report presents results of the interim phase of a very large project financed by EU. The focus of this report is on developing a framework for valuation of ecosystem services with special reference to biodiversity.
71 Marine and coastal ecosystem services: Valuation methods and their practical application UNEP, 2011 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Overview of valuation techniques
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Valuation of ecosystem services
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: This report sets out some of the most commonly used methods for economic valuation of ecosystem services, and explore their pros and cons in practical contexts for assessing management interventions in marine and coastal environments. Examples are used to illustrate a range of applications in policy development, decision making and communication, and to highlight some of the main challenges for valuation, and solutions. The aim is to provide initial guidance on the ways in which valuation can be useful in practical decision-making and management contexts.
72 Climate models at their limit? Nature, Vol. 486, 2012 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: To point to the state of climate modeling in view of the 5th IPCC Assessment
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change models and uncertainties
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: For the fifth major assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be released in 2012, climate scientists face a serious public-image problem. The climate models they are now working with, which make use of significant improvements in our understanding of complex climate processes, are likely to produce wider rather than smaller ranges of uncertainty in their predictions. To the public and to policymakers, this will look as though the scientific understanding of climate change is becom­ing less, rather than more, clear. The authors conclude that greater knowledge and improved models will always be desirable, but they should not be considered as a panacea for political and public reticence to action on climate change. Despite the uncertainty, the weight of scientific evidence is enough to tell us what we need to know.
73 Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, 2012 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Show limits to climate prdictability
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Regional
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change models and uncertainties
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: As climate models improve, decision-makers’ expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, poses inherent limits to climate predictability and the related goal of adaptation guidance in many places, as illustrated here for North America. Other locations with low natural variability show a more predictable future in which anthro­pogenic forcing can be more readily identified, even on small scales. We call for a more focused dialogue between scientists, poli­cymakers and the public to improve communication and avoid raising expectations for accurate regional predictions everywhere.
74 Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? Eos, Vol. 90, 2009 AM
  • AIMED AT: Experts developing project documents
  • PURPOSE: Show limits to climate prdictability
  • GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global
  • TECHNICAL AREA: Climate change models and uncertainties
  • BASIC STRUCTURE: The authors state that the accuracy of climate predictions is limited by fundamental, irreducible uncertainties. For climate prediction, uncertainties can arise from limitations in knowledge, from randomness and from human actions. Some of these uncertainties can be quantified, but many simply cannot, leaving some level of irreducible ignorance in our understanding of future climate.