International Waters learning Exchange & Resource Network

TDA/SAP activities

Climate variability and change considerations are an integral aspect of undertaking a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) as a component of developing a Strategic Action Programme (SAP) for the shared water bodies within an IW project (See TDA/SAP Methodology and PMM for detailed information on the TDA/SAP Process). There has been significant debate in previous TDA/SAP projects on whether climate change is a transboundary problem, however climate change has been recognized as a significant driver (or root cause) of a number of transboundary problems (for example changes in biodiversity, loss of ecosystems, eutrophication, invasive species). Consequently, the effects of climate change (in terms of cause and impact) need to be well understood to ensure that future interventions are both resilient and adaptive.

LMEs and GEF

The role of the GEF in supporting LME projects, with a focus on the GEF’s International Waters portfolio and the distribution of financial assistance to countries participating in LME sustainable development projects around the globe. Detailed analysis of climate change issues in LMEs. Special focus is on acidification and impacts on marine resources.

UNDP/GEF: Frontline Observations on Climate Change and Sustainability of Large Marine Ecosystems, 2012 (Ref. Doc. 20)

It is important that within the TDA an assessment is made of the possible scenarios that could result from climate change and their impacts on the marine resources and ecosystems and that these scenarios are utilized within the planning activities of the SAP (e.g. developing management actions or measures to respond to the transboundary problems) that are robust and resilient to potential climate change impacts. The concept of 'no regrets' option (those measures that turn out to be of benefit no matter how much they cost, or if and how the predicted climate change impacts materialize) has been utilized by a number of guidance documents in adaptation actions.

For more information see documents 10111522263536]

Sea Level Rise

Over the last decade, there has been significant progress in understanding of future sea level change and, as a result, confidence that global averaged sea level is rising and will continue to rise through the twenty-first century and beyond has increased. The amount of rise is dependent on future emissions of greenhouse gases. There are likely to be significant regional differences in the amount of sea level change from both ocean dynamic responses and changes in mass distribution, principally from a changing cryosphere. However, major deficiencies in our understanding remain, and current projections still cover a broad range of values regardless of emission scenarios. Perhaps the major challenge is the response of the ice sheets, particularly those parts grounded below sea level. A second set of challenges relates to better understanding of the regional distribution of sea level change, short-term prediction of sea levels, and the impacts of climate change on extreme events.

Understanding and projecting sea level change, Oceanography 24 (2), 2011 (Ref. Doc. 11)