Understanding and projecting sea level change
AIMED AT: Policy makers PURPOSE: To make projections of sea level rise and identify challenges faced in making projections GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: Global TECHNICAL AREA: Sea level rise projections based on AR4 model of IPCC, global and challenges of making regional projections BASIC STRUCTURE: Over the last decade, there has been significant progress in understanding of future sea level change and, as a result, confidence that global averaged sea level is rising and will continue to rise through the twenty-first century and beyond has increased. The amount of rise is dependent on future emissions of greenhouse gases. There are likely to be significant regional differences in the amount of sea level change from both ocean dynamic responses and changes in mass distribution, principally from a changing cryosphere. However, major deficiencies in our understanding remain, and current projections still cover a broad range of values regardless of emission scenarios. Perhaps the major challenge is the response of the ice sheets, particularly those parts grounded below sea level. A second set of challenges relates to better understanding of the regional distribution of sea level change, short-term prediction of sea levels, and the impacts of climate change on extreme events.
Understanding and projecting sea level change.pdf
